نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
The purpose of this research was to develop future scenarios for the management of sports facilities in Iran toward the 2035. This fundamental-applied study was using a mixed-methods design and the Schwartz model of scenario planning. The statistical population of experts in the field of sports facility management, from which 17 individuals were selected for the interview phase via purposive sampling until theoretical saturation was reached, 7-member strategic council was formed for the quantitative stages. Data collection tools included semi-structured interviews to identify drivers and two cross-impact matrices to analyze relationships and scenario consistency. The validity of the tools was confirmed through expert opinion, and their reliability was verified by methods such as inter-coder agreement (85.7%). data were analyzed using qualitative content analysis and the MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. After analyzing 38 initial drivers and identifying 5 key uncertainties, the findings led to the development of three probable and scenarios: 1) the 'Green Leap,' a desirable future based on the alignment of technology, social demand, and participatory governance; 2) 'Distrusted Progress,' which depicts a technocratic world with advanced technology but lacking social capital; and 3) the 'Mirage of Intelligence,' indicating a future based on fragmented and inefficient technological development. This finding shows that the desirable future of sports facility management in Iran depends less on technology itself and more on creating a meaningful link between technological innovations and transformations in governance and social participation models, requiring a strategic transition from a purely technical view to a comprehensive socio-technical approach.
کلیدواژهها English