Elite sport is one of the domains within a country's sports system, and achieving success at the Olympic Games depends on a complex set of interconnected factors. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the key drivers of Iraq’s sporting success at the 2036 Olympic Games. From a philosophical perspective, the research adopted an interpretivist paradigm; in terms of approach, it was inductive; and regarding its nature, it employed a mixed-methods design. The study participants consisted of stakeholders in Iraq’s elite sports sector, including presidents and vice presidents of the National Olympic Committee and sports federations, world-class athletes, and national team coaches. Through purposive sampling based on theoretical saturation, 17 key informants were selected as the sample. Interviews and questionnaires were utilized for data collection, Lincoln and Guba’s (1985) criteria were applied for data auditing and quality assessment, and structural analysis was used for data analysis. The findings revealed that 67 factors influence Iraq’s sports success at the 2036 Olympics, among which 17 factors possess very high importance and uncertainty. Furthermore, structural analysis identified five critical relay/ambivalent variables (Factors with high levels of influence and susceptibility, which destabilize the system) with the highest scores: government investment in elite sport, sustainability of the elite sport budget, long-term strategic planning for Olympic sports, development of elite sport infrastructure, and a system for continuous talent identification and retention. Consequently, their status must be given consideration when formulating strategies and measures for Iraq’s elite sport system to achieve success at the 2036 Olympic Games.