The sports tourism industry is one of the most dynamic economic subsectors, contributing significantly to GDP and employment. Iran, with its unique climatic diversity, holds great potential for developing this industry, yet full utilization faces serious challenges. The Seventh Development Plan, with a transformational approach, identifies tourism as a driver of economic growth. Given the research gap in systematically analyzing the challenges of sports tourism development within this framework, this study aims to identify and structurally analyze these obstacles. Using a future-oriented, analytical-exploratory design, this research employed grounded theory and structural analysis via MICMAC software. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 16 experts—including planners and faculty members—until theoretical saturation was reached. The findings identified nine key challenges across political, economic, and cultural categories. Impact analysis revealed that "lack of appropriate advertising and tourism sites," "insufficient infrastructure," and "absence of marketing" are the most influential input variables. Meanwhile, "neglect of sports tourism in development planning," "budgetary shortages," and "lack of clear strategies" emerged as bi-modal variables with the potential to become key actors. In indirect effects, "budget deficits" impacted "infrastructure deficits," while "neglect in the Seventh Plan" influenced "low quality standards." Ultimately, strategic recommendations include formulating a comprehensive strategic document, targeted financing, infrastructure development, establishing a digital marketing system, human capacity building, and cross-sectoral coordination. These measures are proposed as essential pathways toward achieving a favorable development scenario within the horizon of the Seventh Development Plan.